Manteca’s housing market has
regained almost 46 percent of the value it lost since a record high
median value of $413,000 for resale homes closing escrow was reached in
2006.
Data released by Trulia.com shows
the median closed escrow price for previously owned homes in Manteca
between August and October was $225,000. That’s up from $175,000 in the
same period of last year.
The median sales price in nearby
cities for October for resales closing escrow was $271,000 in Ripon,
$198,500 in Lathrop, $193,500 in Escalon, $152,500 in Salida, $129,500
in Stockton, and $109,646 in French Camp.
The biggest surge in Manteca occurred over the summer with median prices gaining $25,000.
“Most of that gain was probably in the last eight weeks,” noted longtime Manteca Realtor Tom Wilson.
Wilson
and others believe the bounce in prices is putting the Manteca, Ripon,
and Lathrop market into another transition period where traditional home
sellers - those not doing short sales or caught in foreclosure - will
start listing their homes in larger numbers. That’s because values are
going up but prices of homes they may want to buy are still at fairly
low levels in addition to interest rates.
Economists at UCLA as
well as local Realtors such as Wilson believe part of the price recovery
being seen now is due to the fact housing has been undervalued in
relation to replacement costs. If a home was started from scratch it
would cost $100,000 for the land and various connection fees before dirt
could even be turned.
Wilson believes significant gains are still on the horizon before prices reach the point they are even with replacement costs.
At
the same time Manteca is feeling the impact of rising home prices in
the Bay Area. As in previous recoveries, Manteca, Ripon, Lathrop, and
Tracy are seeing surges in prices six months behind what is happening in
job-rich enclaves such as the Silicon Valley, San Francisco, and
Pleasanton-Livermore. There were 135 active listings in Manteca for the
week ending Nov., 7. The average asking price for those homes was
$270,437 up 1.4 percent over the previous week when it was $266,826.
If
the trend holds, a number of homeowners who have experienced drops in
property tax bills in the past four years could be hit with tax bill
shock in mid-2013 if the assessor matches values with market trends.
Proposition
13 caps “new” gains in value at 2 percent annually and requires
assessors to drop assessments to match market values on a year-to-year
basis. Anything that is taken away in terms of assessment, though, can
be restored in a year’s time if the market recovers that quickly.
By Dennis Wyatt
Managing Editor - Manteca Bulletin
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Saturday, September 8, 2012
Manteca HWY 99 Widening Project
Another large step in the growth of Manteca. Have a look at in the video below...
Monday, August 20, 2012
Manteca Housing Plunge Over!!!
The days of Manteca’s housing prices mimicking Six Flags at Vallejo’s Medusa super roller coaster plunging to earth are over.
Instead the resale housing market is acting more like a sedate kid’s ride.
As a result real estate agents and new home sales directors contacted by the Bulletin all believe the worst is behind the Manteca market. At the same time they don’t expect a return to a high adrenalin market any time soon. That is even with a final big wave of foreclosures expected to flood the market in the coming months.
The health of the housing market - both resale and new - is critical to Manteca’s economic health as it is one of the biggest private sector job generators in terms of constructing and selling as well as pumping up retail sales and demand for other services.
“Prices are inching up,” noted longtime Realtor Carol Bragan.
Bragan and others lamented the lack of inventory as reflected in Multiple Listing Service stats that show the previously owned homes available for sale in the 95336 and 95337 ZIP codes to be down 43.6 percent from January when there were 179 available to 101 in July. At the same time sold homes over the seven-month period are up 32.3 percent, pending sales are up 15.4 percent, and the available inventory has dropped from a 2.8-month supply in January based on the sales pace to 1.2-month supply in July.
Real estate agents estimate the buyers of existing homes are between 80 and 90 percent “local” as defined by being from the Northern San Joaquin Valley. A large chunk are investors motivated by the fact $170,000 invested in a house is producing net cash flow from rent significantly greater than most other investments.
And although prices have started inching up as reflected in sales in June, July and so far this month, real estate experts expect the market to stay relatively flat.
Realtor Tom Wilson notes that “prices and quantity of sales are statistically flat.” That is backed up by the sales pace so far this year that is almost a carbon copy of 2011 when 1,173 homes were sold. And if prices continue ever so slightly going up based largely on more expensive properties selling, the current median price of $176,800 for the first seven months will come close to mirroring the 2011 median of $179,950 by year’s end.
“Manteca real estate remains undervalued compared to neighboring communities such as Ripon, Escalon, and Oakdale,” Wilson observed. “It is only a question of when prices will catch up with reduced inventories.”
That is especially true when replacement cost - the price of building from scratch - is taken into account.
University of Southern California economists have been predicting home prices will at one point experience a couple years of double digit gains that will recoup a large chunk of the pre-2001 pricing levels before the market started overheating.
Meanwhile, new home builders in Manteca are ramping up for a an improving housing market with several developers - Atherton Homes and Raymus Homes - getting ready in the coming months to break ground on new neighborhoods.
Atherton Homes sales manager Kathy Hammons noted “sales have doubled since April” at Union Ranch with 23 deals completed and four reservations pending. Foot traffic - a barometer of market interest - has nearly doubled since the start of the year in model homes.
And unlike in 2008 when the new housing market reached its lowest point in the last 15 years, there is no absence of Bay Area buyers.
Those buying homes so far this year at Union Ranch hail from Dublin, Fremont, Mountain View, and San Jose with those coming from west of the Altamont Pass accounting for half of all sales. The rest are “local” sales from Manteca, Stockton, Madera, and Ripon among other locales.
When the market was overheating from 2001 to 2006, Bay Area buyers accounted for 90 percent of all new home sales and almost three out of every four existing home sales in Manteca.
Hammons said that new home buyers today place a big emphasis on lifestyle as they are looking to stay in the homes they are buying for a long time.
New home builders are on track for their fourth consecutive year of selling more than 300 housing units a year in Manteca. If that happens, it will mark four years in a row Manteca has built more homes than any other jurisdiction in San Joaquin, Stanislaus and Merced counties.
Justin Smith who works at Union Ranch credits that to Manteca’s “quality of growth” that sets it apart in the minds of buyers from that of other nearby communities.
By Dennis Wyatt
Managing Editor
dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com
209-249-3519
Instead the resale housing market is acting more like a sedate kid’s ride.
As a result real estate agents and new home sales directors contacted by the Bulletin all believe the worst is behind the Manteca market. At the same time they don’t expect a return to a high adrenalin market any time soon. That is even with a final big wave of foreclosures expected to flood the market in the coming months.
The health of the housing market - both resale and new - is critical to Manteca’s economic health as it is one of the biggest private sector job generators in terms of constructing and selling as well as pumping up retail sales and demand for other services.
“Prices are inching up,” noted longtime Realtor Carol Bragan.
Bragan and others lamented the lack of inventory as reflected in Multiple Listing Service stats that show the previously owned homes available for sale in the 95336 and 95337 ZIP codes to be down 43.6 percent from January when there were 179 available to 101 in July. At the same time sold homes over the seven-month period are up 32.3 percent, pending sales are up 15.4 percent, and the available inventory has dropped from a 2.8-month supply in January based on the sales pace to 1.2-month supply in July.
Real estate agents estimate the buyers of existing homes are between 80 and 90 percent “local” as defined by being from the Northern San Joaquin Valley. A large chunk are investors motivated by the fact $170,000 invested in a house is producing net cash flow from rent significantly greater than most other investments.
And although prices have started inching up as reflected in sales in June, July and so far this month, real estate experts expect the market to stay relatively flat.
Realtor Tom Wilson notes that “prices and quantity of sales are statistically flat.” That is backed up by the sales pace so far this year that is almost a carbon copy of 2011 when 1,173 homes were sold. And if prices continue ever so slightly going up based largely on more expensive properties selling, the current median price of $176,800 for the first seven months will come close to mirroring the 2011 median of $179,950 by year’s end.
“Manteca real estate remains undervalued compared to neighboring communities such as Ripon, Escalon, and Oakdale,” Wilson observed. “It is only a question of when prices will catch up with reduced inventories.”
That is especially true when replacement cost - the price of building from scratch - is taken into account.
University of Southern California economists have been predicting home prices will at one point experience a couple years of double digit gains that will recoup a large chunk of the pre-2001 pricing levels before the market started overheating.
Meanwhile, new home builders in Manteca are ramping up for a an improving housing market with several developers - Atherton Homes and Raymus Homes - getting ready in the coming months to break ground on new neighborhoods.
Atherton Homes sales manager Kathy Hammons noted “sales have doubled since April” at Union Ranch with 23 deals completed and four reservations pending. Foot traffic - a barometer of market interest - has nearly doubled since the start of the year in model homes.
And unlike in 2008 when the new housing market reached its lowest point in the last 15 years, there is no absence of Bay Area buyers.
Those buying homes so far this year at Union Ranch hail from Dublin, Fremont, Mountain View, and San Jose with those coming from west of the Altamont Pass accounting for half of all sales. The rest are “local” sales from Manteca, Stockton, Madera, and Ripon among other locales.
When the market was overheating from 2001 to 2006, Bay Area buyers accounted for 90 percent of all new home sales and almost three out of every four existing home sales in Manteca.
Hammons said that new home buyers today place a big emphasis on lifestyle as they are looking to stay in the homes they are buying for a long time.
New home builders are on track for their fourth consecutive year of selling more than 300 housing units a year in Manteca. If that happens, it will mark four years in a row Manteca has built more homes than any other jurisdiction in San Joaquin, Stanislaus and Merced counties.
Justin Smith who works at Union Ranch credits that to Manteca’s “quality of growth” that sets it apart in the minds of buyers from that of other nearby communities.
By Dennis Wyatt
Managing Editor
dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com
209-249-3519
Friday, April 20, 2012
Home prices close to bottoming, to rise in 2013
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The relentless decline in home prices is nearing an end and prices should rise for the first time in seven years in 2013, but a possible new wave of foreclosures could threaten the recovery, according a Reuters poll of economists.
The median forecast of 24 economists polled by Reuters was for the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to end the year unchanged. That was the same finding back in January for this house price gauge, which covers 20 cities.
"We are expecting a gradual improvement, but if we get a big wave of new foreclosures coming to the market, price declines could be even greater," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas in New York.
The survey forecast the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rising 2.0 percent next year, up from 1.5 percent in the January survey.
The housing market's collapse pushed the economy into its longest and deepest recession since the 1930s. Historically, housing has led the economy out of recession, but it has been the weakest link in the recovery that started in mid-2009.
While residential construction accounts for a mere 2.3 percent of gross domestic product, home prices have an oversized reach in the economy, influencing a wide range of consumption decisions by households.
House prices have so far fallen about 32 percent from their peak at the end of 2005, and an estimated 11 million Americans now owe more on their homes than they are worth.
A resulting tide of foreclosures has held back the housing market's recovery.
The survey predicted about 1.5 million foreclosed properties will come on to the market this year. While there is no comparison for this figure, most analysts believe the foreclosure wave has either peaked or is close to topping out.
Given that foreclosures and the accompanying fear of further price declines are the main obstacles to any housing market recovery, few analysts say that further purchases of mortgage backed securities by the Federal Reserve will help.
Fed officials meet on April 24 and 25 to debate whether further steps are needed to drive borrowing costs lower to spur stronger economic growth.
Mortgage rates are already near record lows and house affordability is the best in history.
"The problem with the housing market is not necessarily that mortgages are expensive," said Millan Mulraine, a senior macro Strategist at TD Securities in New York.
"It's more the expectation that prices may continue to fall and cause a lot of potential buyers to sit on the sidelines to wait for more attractive entry points. I don't think there is lot more mileage to be achieved from MBS purchases."
Further MBS purchases by the U.S. central bank, however, could help keep mortgage rates low as the economy's recovery gains momentum.
The survey forecast the 30-year mortgage rate averaging 4.00 percent in 2012, down from 4.15 percent in the January poll.
Although job growth slowed in March, the labor market is expected to continue strengthening this year.
That should help to lift home sales. Sales of previously owned homes are expected to register an annualized 4.70 million unit annual pace in both the second and third quarters of this year before topping at 4.80 million units in the fourth quarter.
That compares to a rate of 4.60 million units and 4.70 million units in the second and third quarter respectively in the January survey.
"This gradual healing is encouraging, but we must tread carefully as the housing market is still far from a robust recovery," Michelle Meyer, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; polling by Snehasish Das and Aakanksha Bhat; Editing by John Stonestreet)
The median forecast of 24 economists polled by Reuters was for the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to end the year unchanged. That was the same finding back in January for this house price gauge, which covers 20 cities.
"We are expecting a gradual improvement, but if we get a big wave of new foreclosures coming to the market, price declines could be even greater," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas in New York.
The survey forecast the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rising 2.0 percent next year, up from 1.5 percent in the January survey.
The housing market's collapse pushed the economy into its longest and deepest recession since the 1930s. Historically, housing has led the economy out of recession, but it has been the weakest link in the recovery that started in mid-2009.
While residential construction accounts for a mere 2.3 percent of gross domestic product, home prices have an oversized reach in the economy, influencing a wide range of consumption decisions by households.
House prices have so far fallen about 32 percent from their peak at the end of 2005, and an estimated 11 million Americans now owe more on their homes than they are worth.
A resulting tide of foreclosures has held back the housing market's recovery.
The survey predicted about 1.5 million foreclosed properties will come on to the market this year. While there is no comparison for this figure, most analysts believe the foreclosure wave has either peaked or is close to topping out.
Given that foreclosures and the accompanying fear of further price declines are the main obstacles to any housing market recovery, few analysts say that further purchases of mortgage backed securities by the Federal Reserve will help.
Fed officials meet on April 24 and 25 to debate whether further steps are needed to drive borrowing costs lower to spur stronger economic growth.
Mortgage rates are already near record lows and house affordability is the best in history.
"The problem with the housing market is not necessarily that mortgages are expensive," said Millan Mulraine, a senior macro Strategist at TD Securities in New York.
"It's more the expectation that prices may continue to fall and cause a lot of potential buyers to sit on the sidelines to wait for more attractive entry points. I don't think there is lot more mileage to be achieved from MBS purchases."
Further MBS purchases by the U.S. central bank, however, could help keep mortgage rates low as the economy's recovery gains momentum.
The survey forecast the 30-year mortgage rate averaging 4.00 percent in 2012, down from 4.15 percent in the January poll.
Although job growth slowed in March, the labor market is expected to continue strengthening this year.
That should help to lift home sales. Sales of previously owned homes are expected to register an annualized 4.70 million unit annual pace in both the second and third quarters of this year before topping at 4.80 million units in the fourth quarter.
That compares to a rate of 4.60 million units and 4.70 million units in the second and third quarter respectively in the January survey.
"This gradual healing is encouraging, but we must tread carefully as the housing market is still far from a robust recovery," Michelle Meyer, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; polling by Snehasish Das and Aakanksha Bhat; Editing by John Stonestreet)
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